Real solutions for power congestion
We need more electricity, and the power grid must be expanded significantly. But how much and how quickly? This is how “monster masts” and expensive power expansion can be postponed.
Stian Backe is a research manager at SINTEF and works with models. Energy system models, that is. This is how he finds out what is possible. And when we talk about an energy system that is stretched to the breaking point to provide enough electricity for everyone, a lot is possible.
Savings up to 35 percent
“In the best scenario, we can reduce peak load by 35 percent. That would require intensifying the focus on maximum energy efficiency, district heating and heat pumps,” he says.
Stian Backe presents different ways to reduce the load at the toughest hour of the year. Photo: private
The point is to keep buildings warm by means other than electricity – like better insulated floors, walls and ceilings, heat pumps wherever possible, and a lot more district heating. Then electricity reserves could be used for other things, such as in places where no better alternatives exist.
Toughest time of the year
The goal is to reduce the electrical load during the time of the year when demand is highest. That time comes during the coldest days of the year, most often in January or February. This is when the electricity grid has to be able to cope. Therefore, the grid cannot be expanded simply based on average consumption – it must be large enough to meet the demand even when everyone turns up their thermostats at the same time on a freezing day.
“What we are working on is the interaction between power and heat in a European context, but also on a more local scale,” Backe says. “What is the potential if we look at these two energy carriers in a more interconnected way? If we free up electricity that is currently used for heating – how much load can we cut in the grid?
District heating and energy efficiency
“We’ve conducted studies and obtained concrete results for energy use potential in Norway. One thing we can do is expand district heating. Another is management and control, for example having a warehouse and a schedule for when we turn power to a hot water tank on and off,” says Backe.
A third action would be to adapt construction measures, according to the researcher. How building structures are renovated impacts how much electricity is used. Energy efficiency in the building structures will in turn affect the power market.
Heating buildings accounts for roughly a third of the entire power market.
One rehabilitation project or one district heating expansion does not yield much of a return.
“Of course, we’re talking about small pieces of the overall puzzle. But looked at together they amount to a lot. Heating buildings accounts for roughly a third of the entire power market,” says Backe.
The numbers are ready to go
At this year’s Arendalsuka, Norway’s largest political empowerment gathering, Backe presented different scenarios for reducing peak load on the power grid at the time of the year when demand is highest.
“We could just continue to develop the building sector as usual, follow the regulations on energy use for new buildings and renovate buildings at the usual pace. We compared this baseline level with a scenario where we expand district heating as much as possible, or renovate building structures as much as possible – or both at the same time,” says Backe.
In addition, the researchers have a dream scenario where heat pumps are also installed in all the places where it is not possible to connect to district heating
By doing everything at once, the peak load could be reduced by 35 percent. If Norway switched to district heating wherever possible, it would be possible to cut 5 percent. Energy efficiency and heat pumps therefore have a much greater impact than district heating alone.
Lower costs
“The coldest hours are marked by everyone heating their buildings at the same time. Heating less or with heat pumps would reduce energy usage a lot,” says Backe.
By doing everything at once, the peak load could be reduced by 35 percent. If Norway switched to district heating wherever possible, it would be possible to cut five percent. Energy efficiency and heat pumps therefore have a much greater impact than district heating alone.
The researchers have not looked at whether having greater access to district heating, heat pumps and more energy-efficient buildings would reduce electricity costs significantly. However, grid expansion is where a lot of money could be saved.
“The grid still needs to be expanded to meet future needs. But if we use electricity more judiciously, we can get more out of the grid we already have and reduce the need for the most expensive investments,” says Backe.
“And if we don’t need to expand the power grid as much, grid rent will probably become cheaper.”
The gains are not just about the grid. When buildings use less electricity, the total energy costs also drop. The study showed the costs in the most energy-efficient scenarios being about 15 percent lower than current costs. The researchers also estimate that electricity use in buildings could be reduced by about 25 percent.
Gains require many contributors
A lot of people need to contribute to realize these gains, and that is why they are difficult to achieve. “So many private individuals have to act, not just governments, companies and organizations. It’s difficult to achieve comprehensive change. Backe points out that all building structure decisions are made by the homeowner.
It’s possible to achieve more with commercial buildings. But even there, it is the owners who must decide to invest in more efficient solutions.
What about Norgespris, a public support scheme that offers a fixed electricity rate? According to Backe, the scheme is a measure that pulls in the exact opposite direction – it weakens the motivation to moderate consumption, as the cost of electricity will be predictably low.
“If the same billions had been used to cover the proposed energy measures, it would have had a more lasting effect. You can fund quite a lot of heat pumps for 20 billion kroner,” he says.
References:
Hanne Kauko et al.: Reducing electricity demand and enhancing heat supply flexibility through energy efficiency and district heating. Energy, 2025.
Stian Backe et al: Impact of activating energy demand flexibility in the building stock: A case study of Norway as a highly electrified country in the European power market. Energy, 2025.
Oslo Economics and SINTEF: Socio-economic value of district heating. Two sub-reports for the Ministry of Energy, 2026
