Currying favour with the USA won’t help, Europe has to go it alone
Europe must realize that the United States is not to be trusted as an ally. NATO is in a coma. We have to fend for ourselves, professor says.
“Europe hopes that relations with the United States will one day return to what they once were. But that won’t happen,” says Professor Jo Jakobsen at NTNU’s Department of Sociology and Political Science.
Europe must put its affection for the United States behind it, he believes, but he doubts whether that will happen yet.
“In Europe, we are apparently convinced that we love the United States, because we need them. Every day we try to convince ourselves that the United States loves us back, which they, at least the current administration, do not. They hate us and subjugate us, but the more we are beaten down, the more effort we put into getting them to love us,” he said.
NATO in an artificial coma
The United States does not need Europe nearly as much as Europe needs the United States, he says. The US is more than capable of doing exactly as it pleases in large parts of the world, completely without Europe’s support. The first evidence of this is Venezuela, with perhaps Greenland, an allied territory, next on the list.
“You don’t threaten your allies to annex their territory. Or: You can, but then it makes no sense at all to talk about America as an ally,” he said.
Europe is many, many years behind in realizing the seriousness of the situation.
Jakobsen has long believed that NATO is in an artificial coma. Now it’s clear to many that over a very short period, the United States is no longer a stable partner in this alliance. But Europe does yet recognize NATO’s artificial coma, he said.
“Europe has hopes, and fawns over the US, but it won’t help. Whether it will be Greenland or something else that causes reality to sink in, we will see. But Europe is in any case many, many years behind in realizing the seriousness of the situation,” he said.
In practice, great powers do not have to follow rules
US President Donald Trump. Photo: White House Official Presidential Portrait
The current administration in the United States is not particularly interested in preserving NATO or friendships with Europe.
“For great powers – and none is bigger than the United States – it can make complete sense to set aside laws and rules and norms. That’s a negative for most people, but not always for the United States itself,” Jakobsen said.
At least in the short term, it may make sense from an American perspective to take Greenland and in practice make the territory one’s own, even against the will of the population, Jakobsen said.
Why on earth should anyone believe in the United States in the future?
“It has always been a nightmare that the most powerful country in the world might find its way back to good, old 1800s pure power politics,” Jakobsen said. Now it is happening.
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The United States not credible as an ally or partner
However, Jakobsen doesn’t think that the short-term gains for the US can compensate for what he calls “long-term hegemonic suicide”. Because why on earth should anyone trust the United States in the future?
“The United States is now hostile towards Europe. We cannot trust an enemy. The country is now without credibility as a security and defence guarantor,” he said.
This isn’t just about defence and security. The United States, for example, worked for decades to build cheap goodwill and soft power through development aid. This approach has been deliberate since the Kennedy administration in the 1960s, but the strategy is practically dead now. China and others are more than willing to take over this role.
Liberal Europe as America’s opponent
As a superpower, the USA has for decades been a champion of peace and democracy, at least in countries that have played in a team.
“Now the US is more concerned with letting Russia be the balance against the liberal, semi-imperialist EU project. In the eyes of the United States, it is the latter that must be fenced in,” Jakobsen said.
The current regime in the United States is not very fond of liberals, it can safely be said. And parts of Europe are about as liberal as you can get.
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Must not be dependent on US weapons
Jakobsen believes the solutions are obvious.
Jo Jakobsen. Photo: NTNU
“Europe must start treating the United States as a non-ally or an enemy,” he said.
At the same time, Europe must gear up for mutual security and respect, both nationally and through joint European projects.
Europe has largely purchased weapons from the United States in recent decades. That cannot continue, he said.
“Over the long term, Europe must ensure strategic autonomy. This includes its own defence industry and less dependence on American weapons,” he said.
But the reality that Europe consists of independent states that can have very different strategic priorities is and will continue to be a problem, he added.
Need Russia and China as a counterbalance
Europe must also start approaching Russia again, no matter how painful it may be.
“European hostility towards Russia depends on American backing. Europe no longer has that. Given that situation, an antagonistic relationship with Russia is doomed to create massive security challenges,” he said.
Here, he says, practical politics must rule, not wishful thinking. Rapprochement and compromise have been normal responses throughout history. That is bad news for Ukraine. If Europe cannot defend itself without help from the United States, Russia is strongest in a sharpened conflict.
Europe must adapt in other areas as well. That includes creating a separate zone of influence, such as North Africa and the Gulf region.
An imperialist USA on overdrive is a foretold nightmare, and only great powers can slow them down.
Jakobsen believes that we must also approach China to some extent, even if geography minimizes the threat from them.
“None of the big three can be trusted, but Europe must deal strategically with all of them. That’s life in international politics,” he says.
“Perhaps the most important thing is that the United States is counterbalanced. An imperialist USA on overdrive is a foretold nightmare, and only great powers can slow them down. Unbalanced power is the most dangerous thing there is, especially for smaller states,” he said.
